Thursday, September 13, 2018

The Great Hurricane Spaghetti Chart Confusion and Other Conundrums Or It's Going Where?

The names, Cyclone, Hurricane and Typhoon all mean the same thing...T-R-O-U-B-L-E if you happen to be in their paths. 

So, do we pack up and move inland? Do we batten down the hatches and ride it out? Do we invite the friends and hold a hurricane party on the back deck? What in the HELL are we supposed to do!?

Watch television news and weather reports? Uh...no. They all build up the drama of potential torrential rain, a storm surge of 4-6 feet, flash floods, 140 MPH gusts of wind and on and on.
Reporters are on the prowl standing on the beach or boardwalk pumping the drama beyond all reason.
Anchor: We now go to news team 6 reporter Biff Barff out on the boardwalk at the Atlantic shore.
               Biff...what are you seeing there?

Biff:       It's amazing to see the incredible power of the waves hitting the shore. There could be                                   severe beach erosion and incredibly high winds during the night.

Anchor: Biff, the storm is expected to make landfall over 300 miles south of your location.

Biff:       The wind here is incredible. I am having trouble holding the microphone! Terror is gripping this                       coastal city.
(While Biff is responding, a man slowly glides by on his beachcomber bicycle sans shirt with his mongrel pup trotting along behind.)

Now, I am not making fun of the life-threatening conditions confronting those in the path of any one of those named storms.  I simply believe the local news media strive to sensationalize the event on the periphery of areas suffering a direct hit. It becomes an annoying (if not embarrassing) succession of reporters on a remote standing in rain and wind trying to tell you how windy and rainy it is...seeming to forget you can and have been able to see
for yourself outside your window. Or they are trying to pump up a rather flat weather event when lucky enough to evade the disaster the storm is sure to bring to those in the "cone".

So many died in the storms of old. Can you imagine the shock of that monster cyclone hitting your home without warning prior to the invention of radar and "hurricane proof" construction? Horrific storm surge and flash floods killed so many people around the world. It takes time and money to prepare these days and, even with advanced notice, people still ignore the warnings and many perish as a result.

Now over the past few years, many countries appear to have their own weather tracking satellites and employ them in the hope of helping the entire planet's awareness and readiness to face any weather threat. We see them as multicolored lines cluttering up the globe. Holy crap! Europeans have them, Canadians have one and God knows who else have them. So when embryonic Atlantic storms begin off the west coast of the African continent, the spaghetti begins to grow...and usually not in the same direction! A storm over 1,000 miles away shows predictions to hit or miss the Americas or Carribean islands or Bermuda or wherever changing every day.
I am shocked the touts in Las Vegas don't offer odds to gamblers on which colored strand will be the most accurate.

We followers of NOAA and the NHC reports are used to the cone. You know? The cone. The shape that tells you if and or how much of the storm you will experience at any given time. The cone can shift (which it did in our favor regarding the current threat) and you can plan accordingly.
Spaghetti strings only plot a possible track and a track isn't enough to tell you how far you are in or out of danger. Interestingly, most of the strands seem to wind up inside that cone when the storm strikes the coast or islands.

In closing, I want to express my hope that those in the path of the current Atlantic cyclone have prepared, will stay safe, seek shelter if unsure and reach out to those unfortunates who might be in danger. Take care of your pets. Don't forget. The sun will shine again. Be well.






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